Nomura has increased its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, driven by strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, even as risks from the West Asia conflict and high oil prices persist.
India's marine product exports facing rough weather from punitive US tariffs are expected to get a big boost following the reduction of 26 per cent tariff as part of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but concerns over non-tariff barriers, which are a dominant aspect of marine trade to the EU, still remain.
US President Donald Trump has announced plans to clear the Strait of Hormuz to secure the vital oil corridor, citing risks to global energy supplies and criticising other nations' inaction.
'Why not aspire for 8 or 9 or even 10 per cent?'
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
Why would a country that requires close to $90 billion in net foreign capital annually to create jobs, build productive capacity, and sustain rapid growth permit $30 billion of capital to flow abroad, thereby contributing to pressure on the rupee? asks Debashis Basu.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has expressed caution regarding 'extreme volatility' risks stemming from the West Asian conflict, which could impact global oil demand and the company's margins, while also noting that near-term retail consumption demand may remain sensitive to macro conditions. Chairman Mukesh Ambani, in the annual report, remained silent on the timeline for Jio Platforms' anticipated public listing, stating the group will 'continue to evaluate strategic pathways'.
India's trade with West Asia saw a significant decline of over 28% in April, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. This downturn is attributed to severe shipping disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, particularly impacting the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
The United States and India are on the verge of finalising a landmark bilateral trade deal, aiming to boost trade to USD 500 billion by 2030, according to US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Bethany Poulos Morrison. The agreement seeks to open India's 1.4 billion-strong market to American goods on reciprocal terms, with ongoing high-level discussions to recalibrate the pact after recent changes in US tariff policy.
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing to discuss a range of issues, including trade frictions and the war in Iran.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
The Americans can occupy Bab el Mandeb, claim to have 'solved' the Strait of Hormuz crisis, declare victory that President Trump so desperately needs, points out Colonel Anil A Athale, former head of the history division, ministry of defence.
The primary objective should be to figure out a way to grow at 7 to 7.5 per cent with inflation around 4 per cent. Any policy that can help us get there must be experimented with. Those that work should stay. Those that do not should go, suggests Karan Bhasin.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Iran has presented a multi-layered proposal to the US in an attempt to break the deadlock in peace talks, focusing on de-escalation and nuclear programme discussions.
The United States and Iran have reached an agreement in principle to immediately and permanently halt all military operations, lift sanctions, and work towards a comprehensive final agreement within 60 days, including a significant reconstruction package for Iran.
Indian equities are experiencing their sharpest rebound in years, with the BSE 500 index rallying 12.1 per cent so far this month, echoing Covid-era recoveries despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and earnings risks.
India is well-stocked with inventories of crude oil and key petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), to deal with short-term disruptions as the war intensifies in West Asia, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday.
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Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
India and the United States have reviewed progress on a proposed interim bilateral trade agreement, discussing market access, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers, as they race to finalise a deal before a temporary 10 per cent US tariff regime expires on July 24.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that the Israeli military will not withdraw from its security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, directly opposing the newly announced American-led diplomatic framework with Tehran. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir further asserted Israel's sovereignty, stating, "Trump's agreement does not bind us. Israel is not subject to the United States, and we are an independent and sovereign nation!"
The Indian government has increased the export duty, or windfall tax, on diesel to Rs 55.5 per litre and on aviation fuel (ATF) to Rs 42 a litre, effective immediately, to boost domestic availability and prevent exporters from exploiting global price differences.
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
Bharat Forge reported modest Q4FY26 results but provided strong guidance, anticipating significant growth from its defence, aerospace, and data centre segments, with a projected 25 per cent revenue growth in Indian manufacturing for FY27, despite current high valuations.
'No one can or will bar India from pursuing its energy goals as it wishes.' 'The US FTA wording may sound more restrictive, but the underlying reality will not undermine India's sovereign energy decisions.'
India and New Zealand have signed a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aimed at significantly boosting bilateral commerce and investments, providing duty-free access for 100 per cent of India's exports to New Zealand and securing duty-free inputs for India's manufacturing sector.
Major paint companies in India, including Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Akzo Paints, and Kansai Nerolac, have announced price hikes ranging from 1% to 8% across various product lines, effective from mid-March to late April, in response to persistently high crude oil and gas prices.
The US blockade on Iranian ports is aimed to curb Iranian energy exports, thereby crippling its economy to force Iran back to the negotiating table, points out Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
India has capped gold imports under the Advance Authorisation scheme at 100 kg, a day after significantly increasing import duties on precious metals. This move aims to tighten conditions for duty-free gold imports by jewellery exporters and curb non-essential imports amidst a ballooning import bill.
Indian defence stocks have seen an average year-on-year gain of 67 per cent, driven by renewed interest following 'Operation Sindoor' and a broader increase in global geopolitical tensions, with the combined market capitalisation of 18 firms increasing by approximately 2.3 trillion.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
US President Donald Trump received a red carpet welcome in Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade, the Iran war, and other key issues. The visit underscores the importance both nations place on their relationship amid ongoing tensions.
